While the United States and its Western allies might wish that China would adopt their position and help to mediate an end to the crisis, China has crafted a stance that conforms to its own interests. It simply doesn’ t have the influence other countries may imagine.

The continuing attacks on Ukraine should be a point where global leaders should be able to align on creating a solution - but outside of a vacuum, tense relations and posturing are getting in the way.

U.S.-Russia cooperation aboard the International Space Station is hopefully a glimpse of how two nations at an all-time-low in relations can still cooperate on shared interests. However, whether or not this may foreshadow a future for China and the U.S. in orbit is another question.

The Russia-Ukraine War is driving global change in both the economic and security domains. China and the United States will face a different world than existed before the Russian military operation that began on February 24.

The international credibility of the United States has been thrown into question. Failure to deliver on promises and various signs of weakness will diminish trust in the U.S. by its allies, thus dampening its appeal and leadership.

No matter how things go on the battlefield, Russia seems to have lost politically, economically and diplomatically. While the strategic center of gravity has shifted, Russia remains obsessed with territorial expansion and control of natural resources.

The Ukraine war has put China in a bind. As a friend of both Russia and Ukraine, China has no desire to pick a side. On the contrary, conventional Chinese wisdom dictates that, when two friends fight each other, the primary objective must be to end the conflict through mediation. While China’s balanced stance has aroused more than a little suspicion, it could end up hastening the end of the war – and easing tensions with the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine’s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his “smash and grab” failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. He then turned to a brutal bombardment of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv to terrorize the civilian population into submission – as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic upshot is that Ukraine’s heroic resistance has been accompanied by increasing civilian suffering.

As the global community turns against an increasingly isolated Russia, China’s silence on the topic becomes more easily interpreted as support for Putin’s war. The untenable stance will be sure to drive more friction between the West and China and puts China’s foreign interests in further jeopardy.

China has remained relatively quiet on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to the annoyance of the West. There may be several explanations for Beijing’s aloofness.