The occupation of Ukraine by hostile Russian forces was one of the primary global focuses last year. The great powers entangled in the conflict touch almost every region of the international community and have pushed Russia and China closer together.

The United States lacks the strength and influence to simultaneously contain both China and Russia. As with the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, its policies will place it in strategic overdraft and lead to more strategic errors.

The thought of full-blown war with China has become mainstream in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. A potent mix of simmering animosity and economic concerns have created a heated climate that both sides need to take a step back from before the U.S. or China falls victim to the intoxicating pull of escalation.

To answer, it is essential to place Russia’s motives in historical context. Since the conflict is essentially between Russia and NATO, the West must be willing to negotiate. Otherwise the struggle will be protracted, with no end in sight.

The war in Ukraine, whether short or long-term, doesn’t serve China’s national interests. While China and Russia are strategic partners, so are China and Ukraine, which agreed in 2013 to preserve national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. Thus, for China, the only path forward is peace.

The Russo-Ukraine conflict has raged on and looks to continue into the near future, straining relations in Europe. The ripple effects of military conflict involving a pronounced foe of the United States has created an even more tense climate on a global stage that already sees U.S.-China relations declining at an alarming rate.

The many tensions that exist already between the U.S. and China already seemed to border unmanageable. And with the Russia-Ukraine conflict continuing to rage on, its long term effects will surely spill over into the relationship between East and West.

Its biggest troubles come from Western sources, which have levied sanctions and provided military aid to Ukraine. While Russia has lost the ability to manipulate international politics, an alignment with China could add new variables.

As an emerging power, China must cultivate a healthy national psyche, seeing not only from its own perspective but also that of others. It should do its own things well, balancing reform, development and stability. And it should work to reestablish positive relations with the U.S..

China stands at a crossroads and will be key in determining whether two camps will take shape. President Xi Jinping’s global development and security initiatives inject confidence into a world industrial scheme that has lost momentum and an international order that has lost stability.